Over the last few months, we have been subjected to the “predictions” of earthquakes and disaster by weather man Ken Ring from Auckland Newzealand.
My goal is to provide the facts and information to dis-prove his theories and stop alot of the anguish and fear that he has been causing.
Note: Quotes of Ken’s are in italics.
As some of you may be aware, Ken has been using many of the following to “predict” earthquakes.
*Lunar cycles, ( perigee, apogee,full-moon, planetary allignment and distance of the moon to the earth.
first of all let’s look at some Verbatim quotes of Ken’s that he published in november 2010.
I would still not consider that another massive earthquake is certain, in fact I think it’s more likely not to be the case in Christchurch. I can only repeat that other well-known earthquakes in NZ’s history have not, as a rule revisited the same site.
On the 26th of dec 2010 there was a 4.9 magnitude earthquake in christchurch city. this caused chaos and panic to the citizens of christchurch.
Also on the 22nd of feb there was a 6.3 magnitude quake which so far has claimed over 140 lives and caused wide damage to housing and infrastructure, parts of the city are unlivable.
As for Ken’s Claim that other well known quakes have not revisited the same site, check out the links below that shows the Wairarapa I and Wairarapa II quakes.
For another disastrous event, Christchurch may or may not be in the firing line again; it could be Wellington or anywhere, and it may not even happen.
As above the 6.3 was disastrous and deadly. saying it could be anywhere is hardly accurate.
The numbers of shakes do seem to be getting less and the distances greater between clusters. People are at last adjusting.
This is a normal aftershock pattern following a 7.1, at least until the 6.3 quake hit. distances between aftershocks are not increasing. as shown here
You can see by the link above that the aftershocks are still random and the distances between them are not increasing.
..my guess is that these aftershocks will end soon for Christchurch, probably around the end of November.
Well it’s now March the 9th…
This from http://quake.crowe.co.nz/
“GeoNet has reported 16 earthquakes within 100km radius of Cathedral Square in the last 24 hours” the largest being a 4.3 magnitude quake.
it is reasonable to relax and asume that another devastating shake is unlikely to repeat anytime soon, despite a seismology-department knee-jerk reaction that a 6+ mag. earthquake aftershock could be arriving in the district at any time.
Once again, the 6.3 magnitude quake on 22 Feb begs to differ, GeoNet had avised of the potential that there would be a quake 1.0 magnitude less than the original 7.1 quake in september.
Nothing is achieved by the so-called earthquake experts warning of ever-impending doom, which may be an ongoing exercise in damage control to cover-up performance embarrassment. To proclaim afterwards that more and bigger shakes were to come [is a] distraction… perhaps they should admit to that, rather than make more claims about future events to come
Studies of overseas earthquakes and the aftershock sequences show that a 1.0 magnitude less than the original is to be expected. as for performance embarrasment, I am unsure what Ken is referring to here as GeoNet monitor earthquakes and report them as they happen, they are not in the buisness of “predicting” earthquakes.
There is no reason to suppose any aftershocks of significance will occur…
Here are the top 5 largest earthquakes/aftershocks since sep 4 in christchurch area.
04-Sep 04:35am 11.0km deep Mag 7.1
22-Feb 12:51pm 5.0km deep Mag 6.3
22-Feb 01:04pm 5.8km deep Mag 5.7
04-Sep 04:56am 10.1km deep Mag 5.6
22-Feb 02:50pm 5.0km deep Mag 5.5
As you can see, 3 of the 5 largest happened on the 22nd of Feb. note: ken said this would not happen.
My business is only a bunch of opinions as I have wearily repeated. There is no claim on accuracy, proof or anything other than that I have opinions.
No claim on accuracy or proof. how can someone predict earthquakes and then say that he is not accurate or has no proof?
It indicates the Christchurch shake is not part of some lasting new development, reaffirming that the activity of the past couple of days has probably been just remnants of general global disturbance due to the recent lunar eclipse… In a day or so things should be back to normal… Please share this article if you think there could be anxieties in your social circle.
If you look at the bottom of that web page, you can see the activity from september 4 up until now. which clearly shows that things are not “back to normal”
And this courtesy of a friend “Can’t believe Mr Ring can not see he is scaring people. He admits this. My family friend is sounding suicidal and this is due to these fears by Mr Ring. Do not delete this post as it is the truth. We are very concerned for her.”
Another similar concern.
“Hi Paul, you dont know me, but i am freaked out by the moonman, so anything you can say to me to ease my mind a little would be great to hear?? i am thinking of bolting to aussie for a coup weeks later this month!! I havnt let my son go back to school yet but hopefully will be at that stage tommorro!! p.s im not a fruit loop just totally confused by it all:)”
“he’s got the kids at school so fricking scared. even the littlies know that he’s said there’s going to be another big quake on march 20. how can he live with himself knowing he’s scaring children. he says he’s not scaring people, that people are grateful for the warning so they can be prepared, but he IS scaring people. these children are terrified. it’s cruel. and what sort of prediction is it when he gives himself a month’s leeway? grrr”
and another similar story.
“No-one can predict earthquakes. Ken Ring claims repeatedly to be able to tell when one is due, yet then changes his story so many times that noone knows what he really means. Take for example the March 20th quake. On the Marcus Lush breakfast show on RadioLive, Ken Ring categorically stated there would be an earthquake on March 20, just before lunchtime. However since January (and as March 20 gets closer) he’s added that it could be two weeks either side of that date; that it could be anywhere in the world; and that it might not even be an earthquake but a gale or undersea volcano or anything. Where in that morass of obfuscation is the actual prediction? He says he doesn’t predict earthquakes – they are merely opinion. But when one happens within the time frame he gave, he crows “I predicted that one”. Arrrghhhhh… I can’t put into words what I feel when he starts up. He doesn’t listen, he doesn’t answer honest questions, he doesn’t entertain valid debate, and he blocks anyone whom he feels has a point. How can anyone respect someone who is so closed minded?”
here is a link to the interview on Radiolive as described in the above comment.
The only anxieties and concerns are a result of Ken and his scaremongering, including an exodus away from christchurch of people due to fear of his “predictions”. and this from Ken on the 14th of march 2011 ”
“For the record, and if anyone is remotely interested in the facts, I have not predicted an earthquake on 20 March, for Christchurch or anywhere else.”
well, thats a retraction if i have ever seen one. quote ” east /west faultline, south island, 20th march around lunchtime”
As far as i know, only earthquakes happen on faultlines.
Lets look at planetary allignment. another ‘tool’ that ken uses.
In relation to activity in march, Ken has used the data of a barcoroller
Here is the video:
In this video the barcoroller explains how Neptune Venus and Saturn are in allignment, however the barcoroller is wrong! the correct scale was not used and in fact Venus is NOT in allignment.
The link below explains that the orbits of the planets are not evenly spaced, the orbits are drawn to scale in the video below which shows that the planetary allignment that Ken says will increase the “disasters” is wrong and incorrect.
Now let’s look closer into Ken’s Moon Theory
This article shows how Ken has effectively given a 100% window for prediction using his methods, which if you think about it is rather rediculous as any event can be claimed to be a prediction
Quote from the author of the article
“I hope you’ll agree, having seen the data, that Ken Ring’s methods are not the least bit plausible. I going to be outrageously generous and say there’s a one in one thousand chance that he can predict earthquakes,”
I’m Sorry Ken but i have to agree, it is clearly obvious that earthquakes happen any time of the day/night/week/month/year. and there is no accuracy in your theory.
Here is a video showing how Ken Ring covers himself and can give a reason for quakes happening. this is rediculous and in theory makes his “predictions” fool proof, this way he can claim any large event as his prediction.
Here is another debunking website that focuses on Ken’s weather “prediction” and why he is wrong.
Also, here is a response by GNS scientists about Ken’s theories
And a transcript from an article from http://www.stuff.co.nz on 3/3/11 from Dr Mark Quigley (Mark Quigley is Senior Lecturer in Active Tectonics and Geomorphology in the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Quigley slated “predictions” of aftershocks by some, including Aucklander Ken Ring, who bases his weather and quake forecasts on the phase and closeness of the Moon.
Nobody had predicted recent Canterbury quakes, he said.
“Vague quotes about dates of `increased’ activity plus or minus several days, without magnitudes, locations and exact times, do not constitute prediction. Ken Ring’s probability of getting a prediction correct based on perigee-apogee, new moon-full moon for 2010 was 63 per cent,” he said.
On average, New Zealand had about 330 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 to 4.9 each year, 26 of 5.0 to 5.9, two of 6.0 to 6.9 a year and one of 7.0 to 7.9 every three years, Quigley said.
“If unspecific about magnitude and location, then your chances of `predicting’ an earthquake that is likely to be locally felt and recorded is greater than 90 per cent,” he said.
“Should we evacuate an area every time the Moon is on its closest approach, is full or new, is moving rapidly, is at its maximum declination or is crossing the equator? Imagine the fear and frustration of such an approach.
“This would require several evacuations a month of `unspecified areas’ to other `unspecified areas’. This is ludicrous.”
Ring could not be contacted yesterday.
Here is a link to Ken’s latest ‘moon chart’ showing a ‘78.5% danger zone’ this confirms what Dr Mark Quigley has said above. ( also note that Ken has put the wrong full moon date for march as the 18th when it is in fact the 20th.)
Here is a factual but funny article on “super-moons”
And in closing:
Some more of Ken’s outrageous quotes
Note: The Bold text is research i have done and shows the errors in Ken’s statements.
‘I don’t claim to be able to forecast the weather. That is your claim on what I do, again your interpretation. I claim to have an opinion on what might happen, that is all… I sell opinions.’
‘No, I am not a scientist, just an ex-maths teacher who took psychology and anthropology at university and a 20 year hobby interest in the Moon behind me.’
‘What is your definition of a scientist? There is the dictionary definition that encompases natural phenomena and the study of anything. I’d say the moon qualifies on both counts… Learn your language better, guys. Remember there is Creation Science, Christian Science, Scientology and science fiction. Anything can be a science, and one who studies it is a scientist.’
‘…I am scientific in my methods.’
Dolphins beam sonar signals to the Moon
The short duration of the transmit signal limits the amount of energy within a signal so that the range of the sonar system is not very large. Typically, dolphins seem to be interested in objects that are within 100 m and are hardly concerned about longer ranges. So in a sense, temporal resolution was traded off with maximum range in the evolution process. However, within a 100 m range, there is not a technological sonar that can rival the dolphin in discriminating and recognizing targets. Bottlenose dolphins can even detect and discriminate targets that are buried in oceansediment.
The Moon is a ‘planet’
The Moon is Earth’s only natural satellite. It is the largest natural satellite in the Solar System
Gravity is far from being the weakest force
This is the weakest of the four forces. It exists between all objects, and can act over long distances. For example, it holds the earth in orbit around the sun, and all the stars together in our galaxy.
The solar wind is an electromagnetic energy force-field
The Sun’s solar wind hits and travels along Earth’s magnetic field. The impact compresses Earth’s magnetic field on the side facing the Sun and pushes it out on the side away from the Sun. The part stretching out away from the Sun is Earth’s magnetotail. It extends downwind a great distance, equal to tens of times the radius of Earth. The electromagnetic radiation from the Sun affects Earth’s entire ionosphere in daylight. Charged particles ejected by the Sun are guided along Earth’s magnetic field lines into the planet’s ionosphere and thus only impact high latitudes where the magnetic field lines go into Earth.
Sir George Darwin was the father of Charles Darwin
Charles Robert Darwin was born in Shrewsbury, Shropshire, England on 12 February 1809 at his family home, the Mount. He was the fifth of six children of wealthy society doctor and financier Robert Darwin, and Susannah Darwin.
The world’s population is 8 billion, and only 5% of them are Christians
The world population is the total population of humans on the planet Earth, currently estimated to be 6.9 billion by the United States Census Bureau
night… [is] when most photosynthesis occurs
Photosynthesis ( /foʊtoʊˈsɪnθəsɪs/; from the Greek φώτο- [photo-], “light,” and σύνθεσις [synthesis], “putting together”, “composition”) is a process that converts carbon dioxide into organic compounds, especially sugars, using the energy from sunlight. ( i’m not aware that sunlight is present at night?)
Our word ‘measurement’ came from ‘moon’, and ‘meteorology’ comes from ‘meteor-astrology’
Measurement is the process or the result of determining the magnitude of a quantity, such as length or mass, relative to a unit of measurement, such as a meter or a kilogram.The word measurement stems, via the Middle French term mesure, from Latin mēnsūra, and the verb metiriMetrology is the science of measurement.
So, in summary of this march the 9th addition to my blog, you can clearly see the errors and misinformation given by Ken Ring and his ‘outrageous views’.
Thanks for reading.
Any questions or if you feel you have more information to add to this page, feel free to email me.